2025 AFC South Predictions

Youth is the name of the game for the NFL’s youngest division, the AFC South.  The Tennessee Titans have a new young quarterback, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have a rookie two-way weapon who’s as unique as they come. Despite struggling last season, the Houston Texans, led by CJ Stroud, are a team eager to take the next step.

Let's dive into my 2025 AFC South predictions with my division winner pick at the end.

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AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Last season: 3-14, missed playoffs

It’s the dawn of a new era in Tennessee as the Titans drafted QB Cam Ward No. 1 at quarterback, positioning him as the new franchise cornerstone as they embark on their rebuild. Ward has already exhibited leadership qualities early, referring to himself and the Titans as “mid” earlier this offseason. Albeit the rookie still has to prove himself in the league, this is a great sign of leadership and accountability from the Titans' new franchise cornerstone as they look to build for the future.

While Ward is a talented young quarterback coming in, he’ll need protection up front. The Titans signed left tackle Dan Moore Jr. to a four-year, $82 million contract. In addition, the development of third-year pro Peter Skoronski, drafting JC Latham from Alabama, and signing OG Kevin Zeitler should result in a significantly improved offensive line and protection for the Titans' rookie quarterback.

Tyler Lockett, a veteran receiver, provides Ward with a legitimate open-field target who is still productive despite his age, as well as a veteran presence in the locker room. They have a dependable running back in Tony Pollard, who is coming off three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, giving them an established run game.

However, they will still struggle to win due to their youth and inexperience.

Prediction: 5-12, miss playoffs

Indianapolis Colts

Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs

The Colts had a busy offseason, signing quarterback Daniel Jones, who will be starting over Anthony Richardson to begin the year. They also added to their secondary by acquiring Chavarius Ward from San Francisco and Will Bynum from Minnesota who should help tighten up the backend for a team that was 26th in opponent passing yards allowed per game (229.4) and 27th in yards per pass (7.6).

Add in a new defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo from the Cincinnati Bengals, who guided Cincinnati's defense to a top 10 NFL finish in interceptions (15, T-8th), pick-sixes (two, T-3rd), and passes defended (79, 9th); defensive end Trey Hendrickson led the NFL with 17.5 sacks, tying a career high set in 2023. His resume doesn’t stop there as he guided the Bengals defense in 2022, holding opponents to 20.1 points per game (T-5th) and a 58.9 completion percentage, the lowest rate in the NFL.

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Anuramo will have a talented cast to work with. Four guys finished with over 100+ tackles for the Colts last season (Zaire Franklin, Nick Cross, EJ Speed, Jaylon Jones). Franklin led the league in tackles with 173. If the Colts can defend the pass and receive competent play from their quarterback, they have the talent to surprise many.

However, that’s a big if, especially after losing Pro Bowl and All-Pro offensive linemen Will Fries and Ryan Kelly to Minnesota.

Prediction: 5-12, miss playoffs

Jacksonville Jaguars

Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs

Trevor Lawrence is facing a pivotal year ahead. Albeit Lawrence played just 10 games last season after season-ending surgery on his left shoulder. His passing yards, touchdowns, touchdown percentage, and passer rating have decreased each season, which is a cause for concern for someone you expect to be your franchise quarterback.

He’ll have plenty of talent to work alongside, as the Jaguars drafted two-way superstar rookie and Heisman winner Travis Hunter, who they plan to play at both WR and CB on both ends of the field. Hunter brings a new, exciting dynamic to the Jaguars' offense and has a chance to win both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.

The Jaguars also added wide receiver Dyami Brown (Browns), who provides another receiving weapon; alongside Brian Thomas Jr., who led the team in receiving yards. The addition of Hunter should make for an intriguing receiving trio. 

They signed QB Nick Mullens, who will back up Trevor Lawrence and has former ties with OC Grant Udinski. They have added depth to their offensive line with the addition of center Robert Hainsey and offensive tackle Patrick Mekari, in addition to Chuma Edoga and Fred Johnson.

Prediction: 9-8, miss playoffs

Houston Texans

Last season: 10-7, won the AFC South Division. Lost to Baltimore in the Wild Card.

The AFC South division champs didn’t stay complacent and acquired WR Christian Kirk through a trade from Jacksonville. He provides additional depth to the receiving lineup, complementing Nico Collins and Tank Dell. He demonstrated his ability to achieve a 1,000-yard receiving season in 2022. 

CJ Stroud had a propensity to hold the football too long (3.00-second time to throw), but a 10.7% sack rate in the face of the blitz (27th) cannot be excused on that, given he ranks 17th in time to throw against the blitz. The team hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator and promoted Cole Popovich to offensive line coach, helping the offensive line develop a nasty streak. The Texans hope to address some of their offensive line issues after losing Pro Bowl OT Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders by signing Pro Bowl OL Laken Tomlinson.

They strengthened their secondary by signing former Philadelphia Eagles cornerback CJ Gardner-Johnson, and they bolstered their running game with Nick Chubb. With the addition of Chubb, the Texans now have a unique and versatile running tandem with Joe Mixon, two contrasting backs who are among the best in the league. Mixon's agility and speed out of the backfield, combined with Chubb's power and brute force, will allow the Texans to run a variety of RPOs in their offense.

The defense, which ranked third in QB sack percentage and fourth in sacks, first in opponent completion percentage, and ninth in opponent rushing yards per game, was impressive. With new offensive weapons in Kirk and Chubb, if the Texans' offensive line can take a jump, they should become a dangerous team in the AFC.

Prediction: 11-6, make playoffs

Division Winner: Houston Texans

In a young conference with most teams rebuilding besides the Texans, the Texans should easily win the division if they stay healthy. A diverse offensive attack featuring weapons such as Chubb, Collins, Kirk, and Mixon should allow Stroud to play with more freedom and comfort. If the offensive line can step up and protect their franchise cornerstone, they will be a dark horse contender.